The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) hit 2,726.48 points in the first week of June — a new 2026 high, up 39.5% in a single month and surging over 70% from February’s lows. US West Coast 40ft container rates are up 87% year-to-date. Mediterranean spot rates are touching $5,000/FEU at some ports. Maersk, MSC, CMA CGM, and Hapag-Lloyd have all announced fresh FAK hikes for June and July. Every carrier’s surcharge sheet reads like a laundry list: PSS, ECS, HWS, fuel surcharges — they’re piling on everywhere.

On paper, this looks like a peak season on steroids. Importers are scrambling for space. The phrase “one cabin hard to find” (一舱难求) is back in the Chinese logistics media.

But here’s the rub: this rally is running on borrowed time.

The Red Sea Ghost

In January 2026, Maersk quietly confirmed that its MECL service would structurally return to the trans-Suez route. The Gemini Cooperation’s ME11 followed. By March, Maersk had completed multiple Red Sea transits — a stark contrast to the crisis of late 2023. The security situation in the region has stabilized enough that the world’s largest carrier is now treating Red Sea normalization not as an “if” but as a “when.”

And here’s where it gets dangerous.

According to Bloomberg Intelligence, the global container fleet is growing at a staggering pace — 36% cumulative capacity growth from 2023 to 2027. That’s the largest newbuilding wave in shipping history. 2026’s new deliveries alone are around 1.5 million TEU, with 2027-2028 expected to see a jaw-dropping ~3 million TEU each year.

Right now, this capacity is being partially absorbed by the ~10% effective capacity “sink” created by Red Sea diversions around the Cape of Good Hope. Every day ships continue to avoid the Suez Canal, the market stays tighter than it should be.

The moment Red Sea transits fully normalize — and Maersk CEO Vincent Clerc has already warned that a “full and fast resumption” is coming — that 10% of effective capacity floods back into the market overnight. The math is brutal: on a demand base growing at only 3-4%, you’re adding 10% supply in one swing.

Clerc didn’t mince words. He told TradeWinds that scrapping older vessels is needed to offset the “bumpy” quarters ahead from the Red Sea return. Translation: even the carriers know this rate party won’t last.

The Two-Speed Crisis

So why are rates still going up in June? Three reasons, and they’re all short-term:

1. ​Seasonal demand front-loading. US importers are rushing shipments ahead of the August 11 tariff relief deadline. The Supreme Court’s February ruling gutted most of the 2025 “Liberation Day” tariffs, creating a temporary window that’s driving a 2024-style pre-tariff rush.

2. ​Port congestion as a “natural capacity management tool.” Congestion in Northwest European ports and the lingering effects of Middle East instability are creating localized bottlenecks. Carriers don’t need to blank sailings when ports are doing it for them.

3. ​Carrier discipline on specific trade lanes. Lines are aggressively managing capacity on the transpacific — they pulled capacity faster during the tariff uncertainty of early 2026 than they did during COVID. Now they’re milking the rebound.

But make no mistake: this is tactical, not structural.

What This Means for Shippers

For importers and exporters planning the second half of 2026, the playbook needs to change:

• ​Near-term (now through August): Rates will stay elevated. Book 3-4 weeks ahead. Expect surcharges at every turn. The August tariff cliff will concentrate demand into a narrow window.

• ​Medium-term (Q4 2026): Watch the Red Sea. Every additional service that returns to Suez is a rate-lowering event. Deutsche Bank and HSBC analysts are already modeling 10-16% further rate declines if normalization accelerates.

• ​Long-term (2027+): The capacity wave is coming. 3M TEU per year in new deliveries. The industry will need significant scrapping — and carriers will fight to maintain pricing power through alliances and blank sailings. But the structural overhang is undeniable.

The Bottom Line

The 2026 container market is a tale of two forces: a short-term demand surge driven by tariffs and seasonality, colliding with a long-term supply tsunami from the newbuilding orderbook and Red Sea normalization. Carriers are printing money in Q2 and Q3, but they’re already signaling that 2027 will be ugly.

For freight buyers, the smart play is to lock in rates for Q3 if you can, but keep contract terms flexible for Q4. The pendulum is swinging — and it’s about to swing hard.

— Vinia Cargo HK (www.viniacargo.com) | China Sourcing & Global Logistics Since 2017